Most poker tournament players have a healthy fear of the blinds because they gradually increase as tourneys move along. And this fear especially increases when you move closer to the tournament bubble, where your hard work either pays off or is all for nothing. So the question in this situation becomes what you do when you’re trying to hang on for a tournament cash in the face of increasing blinds. That said, let’s address this subject more by talking about a little strategy for these situations.
Measuring All of the Factors
The typical poker tournament bubble scene goes like this: the large majority of short stacks freeze up and either wait for A) a great hand to come, or B) the bubble to burst. Many poker strategists suggest playing really aggressive in these situations because so many others are playing tight, but this doesn’t usually work for the short stacks.
After all, the biggest stacks are far less likely to respect your raises or shoves when you are short on chips. So if you’re trying to hang on to make the money, it’s often counterproductive to bully other players around when you don’t have the stack to scare anybody.
On the other hand, folding pocket tens when they come around preflop isn’t a good idea either. You don’t know when the bubble is actually going to burst, and you could get stuck trying to decide whether or not to shove your remaining 2bb with Q-4 offsuit.
All in all, playing the bubble when you’re in danger of blinding out involves a number of factors such as how low some of the other remaining stacks are, how likely you are to get away with a steal, how much a small cash actually means to you, and whether or not the amount of money is worth passing up +EV moves. To illustrate these factors in action, let’s move on to a tournament example.
Playing the Bubble with a Low Stack
Assume you’re down to the final 21 players in a poker tournament where the top 15 cash. Your stack is at around 6bb, and there are nine other players with about the same stack size. At this point, you’re in a fold or shove situation because if you raise, it’s very likely a bigger stack will reraise and put you all-in anyways. So this becomes a time where you should be thinking about two main options:
1) Keep folding and pray for a cash
2) Play aggressively and hope to double up
Most people would say the first option is a terrible idea because other short stacks will be playing aggressively, and this strategy will earn them the blinds needed to stay alive. But if the money is significant to you (instead of a tiny cash), not going all-in with hands like J-T(o) could be to your benefit. In some situations, players will get a good run of cards right when it appears as if their tourney life is over. Furthermore, assuming there is another short stack or two at your table and they’re not playing aggressively, you could sneak into the money if they bust out.
As for the other suggestion, most players will advise that you do everything possible to double up before being in danger of blinding out, which is certainly a good idea because if you do double up, at least your stack will have some power behind the bubble. However, just because you have 3bb left doesn’t mean it’s the time to shove with T-3(o). A lot of what you do in this scenario will depend on position, and your judgement of how likely you are to be called here. A good idea is to wait for the cut-off or button to come around, then try to steal – especially if the players behind you are tight and/or low stacks.
One more thing to keep in mind is that when you play a lot of poker tournaments, the bubble becomes less of big thing, which allows you to forget about the money and make +EV plays without fearing a non-cash.
